Grab is well-positioned to benefit from autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption in Singapore, Maybank Investment Bank said in its recent note.

The research house based on a 2030 blue sky model, estimated AV costs could fall to $0.52/mile with tech deflation, while driver costs rise to $0.85/mile on 4 percent annual inflation.

“Assuming 20 percent of Grab’s Singapore fleet transitions to AVs, this implies potential annual savings of about $71 million and a 7 percent uplift in NPV,” it noted.

With early AV partnerships (A2Z, Motional, WeRide) and operational strength via Grab Rentals, it opined that Grab is uniquely positioned to play both platform and fleet operator roles in the AV world, while its strong balance sheet supports infrastructure investment and mitigates
competitive (new tech disruptor) risks.

Unlike traditional ride-hailing’s asset-light model, Maybank highlighted that AV ride-hailing remains infrastructure-heavy, requiring significant investment across three layers:
the autonomy tech stack, ride-hailing platform integration, and fleet operations including depots, charging, and upkeep.

As a result, the global AV landscape is shifting from standalone deployment to platform-led collaboration, reinforcing its view that partnerships are the fastest route
to scale.

In the United States, Waymo integrates with Uber, and Mobileye with Lyft—pairing cutting-edge tech with fleet access.

China remains the exception, with Baidu’s full-stack Apollo Go surpassing 11m rides since inception, though it still lags Didi’s 33m daily trips.

In South Korea and the Middle East, players like Hyundai, WeRide, and Baidu are working through strategic tie-ups with ride-hailing apps and governments.

According to Maybank, AV cost/mile is already competitive but not yet superior — Waymo’s estimated cost is $2.31/mile excluding platform overheads and foundational research and development (R&D) spend versus Uber’s $1.97/mile.

Including amortized R&D (about $1/mile), total cost could exceed $3.3/mile.

However, vision-led systems like Tesla FSD and Baidu Apollo Go are narrowing the cost gap, with Apollo Go’s RT6 priced under $30,000 versus >$100,000 for Waymo’s LiDAR-reliant AV.

“As AV BOM drops and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven vision matures, cost per mile could fall below human-driven models, making the path to scalable AVs clearer,

“In Singapore, we estimate, AV tech stack cost per mile at about $0.84 at full utilization, versus driver earnings at about $0.70,” Maybank noted.

According to the research house, AV economics remain unfavorable in emerging ASEAN.

With driver costs at just $0.2-0.3/mile in markets like Indonesia and Vietnam, AVs — at $0.7–0.8/mile — are still uncompetitive, it noted.

“Poor road infrastructure and informal traffic patterns further raise localization costs,

“Coupled with political sensitivity around driver displacement, mass deployment is unlikely in the medium term. Upside optionality exists, but timelines will be long and staggered,” it added.

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